Booze

Reason -Since Prohibition's repeal, few voters have focused on alcohol as a relevant issue in federal elections. But while the majority of alcoholic beverage regulation resides at the state and local level these days, the federal government can still play a significant role in the price, availability, and societal acceptance of our favorite tipple. This year's presidential race may in fact be the most significant federal election for alcohol since Prohibition's aftermath.

The alcohol industry suffered heavily under Donald Trump's tariffs during his first term, with aluminum tariffs driving up the cost of beer cans—and, in turn, the cost of beer—as well as a broiling trade war with Europe causing hardship for whiskey distilleries. Europe responded with retaliatory tariffs on bourbon and other American whiskeys; America then responded in kind with tariffs on Scottish and Irish whiskey and other European liqueurs. Given that the European market has become increasingly important for United States whiskey companies, the tariffs ended up hurting America's whiskey industry far more than they helped it.

During the Biden administration, there has been a gradual de-escalation in the whiskey wars and aluminum tariffs. The Kamala Harris campaign has seized upon this by warning of the "Trump Tequila Tax" on imported alcohol that Americans can expect in the event of a Trump win.

However, the Biden-Harris administration has been far from reliable on tariff policy, choosing to continue many Trump-enacted tariffs rather than end them. But given that tariffs have been a persistent hobby horse for Trump since even his pre-presidential days, the American alcohol industry appears more concerned about a second Trump presidency than the comparative murkiness of Harris' tariff inclinations.

The winery sector is fearful of another longtime Trump policy priority: Immigration. Trump's restrictive immigration posture could have severe repercussions for the California wine industry, given its heavy reliance on immigrant labor from Mexico. At a time when many American wineries—and global wine markets writ large—are facing deep struggles, a labor supply shock to the industry could further roil the wine world.