Polling update

 2024 PRESIDENTIAL RACE: HARRIS VS. TRUMP

Five poll average: Trump leads by 1% A statistical tie. In the last five poll average, Trump led by 4% over Biden.  In June Biden's best was 2% behind Trump

JD Vance

Axios - An increasing share of adults under 50 say they're unlikely to have kids — and the major reason is, well, they just don't want to, Axios' Emily Peck writes from a new Pew Research Center report... 47% of adults under 50 without kids say they're unlikely to have them — up 10 percentage points from 2018. Of those who said they're unlikely to have children, 57% said "they just don't want to," while 44% said they wanted to focus on different things. 38% pointed to the state of the world, 36% said they couldn't afford to raise a child, and 13% cited infertility or other medical reasons.  64% of young women say they just don't want children, compared to 50% of men.

This is one of the weirdest ideas we've heard from any politician

Books

 Guardian - Half of adults in the UK do not regularly read for pleasure, according to new survey data.The study, commissioned by the charity the Reading Agency, saw 15% of adults reporting that they have never been regular readers, and 35% saying that they are lapsed readers, meaning that they used to read regularly for pleasure, but rarely or never do now.

The accompanying report, titled The State of the Nation’s Adult Reading, said that young adults were less likely to read than all other age groups. The 16- to 24-year-old age group had the lowest level of regular readers (32%), with nearly a quarter saying they have never been regular readers and 44% saying they are lapsed readers. In contrast, 62% of adults 55 and over said they read regularly, which was defined as reading at least once a week.

 

Supreme Court

 Lydia Wheeler -  Justice Elena Kagan proposed Chief Justice John Roberts appoint a panel of judges to enforce the US Supreme Court’s code of conduct.

Women

Hartmann Report - Multiple pregnant Red state women have, over the past year or so, told harrowing stories about almost dying before doctors were willing to give them healthcare for fear of going to prison because of draconian state abortion bans.But now we learn that GOP policies aren’t just capable of killing women; they appear to have killed at least 20,000 newborn babies in 2022, as Red states across the country instituted abortion bans in the wake of the Dobbs decision by six Republicans on the Supreme Court....White women were hit the hardest, suggesting this isn’t another example of health outcome disparities resulting from structural and institutional racism but, instead, a direct result of Republican abortion bans altering the way physicians and hospitals are practicing medicine.

Alternative sex and gender

Nebraska Supreme Court upholds law restricting both medical care for transgender youth and abortion

NBC News -  Vivian Jenna Wilson, the transgender daughter of Elon Musk, said in her first public interview that he was an absent father who was cruel to her as a child for being queer and feminine. Wilson, 20, in an exclusive interview with NBC News, responded to comments that Musk made Monday about her and her transgender identity. On social media and in an interview posted online, Musk said she was “not a girl” and was figuratively “dead,” and he alleged that he had been “tricked” into authorizing trans-related medical treatment for Wilson when she was 16.

Trump

 New Republic -Donald Trump’s newest lame excuse for not debating Kamala Harris just evaporated in a matter of hours.In a statement released Thursday night, Trump’s campaign explained that they would be putting any future presidential debates on hold. “Given the continued political chaos surrounding Crooked Joe Biden and the Democrat Party, general election debate details cannot be finalized until Democrats formally decide on their nominee,” said Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung.

In the days following President Joe Biden’s endorsement of Harris, Trump took to Truth Social to air his grievances over the upcoming debate, scheduled for September 10. He seemed to be complaining about the debate’s host, ABC News, to create a context for skipping it all together.

Harris

 

You know who else was childless and raised their spouse’s children from a previous marriage like their own?  - @ThatBenSheehan)

Dirt Diggers Digest - In her time as California’s Attorney General, Kamala Harris racked up a solid record of successes in prosecuting cases against rogue corporations. She would do well to signal that she intends to adopt that approach if she makes it to the White House. See Kamala Harris as A Corporate Crime Fighter

 AP News - Vice President Kamala Harris, the likely Democratic nominee for president, is attempting to bridge divides within the party over the war in Gaza. She delivered remarks after meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday that reflected a delicate balancing act on one of the country’s most divisive political issues. Read more.

Olympics

7 Quirky—and Discontinued —Summer Olympic Events 

NBC News - In the 128-year history of the modern Olympiad, there’s never been an opening quite like today’s.  Rather than parade inside a stadium, around 10,500 athletes will sail in a 3½-mile flotilla of 94 boats down Paris’ iconic Seine. It could be a blockbuster return for the summer sporting festival, which will host spectators for the first time in eight years after the coronavirus-plagued days of Tokyo in 2021.

France has heightened its security ahead of the games, following a terrorist attack in Moscow in April. “Security is a perennial concern for any large international or global gathering, so when you’re talking about the Olympics, security concerns tend to be extraordinarily vivid,” one of France's top terrorism experts said. Those fears came into focus hours before the festivities started when France’s state-owned high-speed rail network was hit with “several simultaneous” arson attacks disrupting travel for 800,000 people, the government operator SNCF said. 

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said the country’s intelligence services and law enforcement agencies had been mobilized to track down suspects after “acts of sabotage” caused “massive and serious” problems on several lines of the national rail network.

The almost 600 athletes on Team USA comprise a talent-loaded roster, with women outnumbering men 314 to 278. American supporters will be eager to see if returning superstars such as Katie Ledecky and Simone Biles can add to their medal hauls in swimming and gymnastics, and whether LeBron James and Steph Curry will lead Team USA to victory over tough international talent. There are plenty of new faces, too, including gymnast Hezly Rivera and runner Nikki Hiltz. 

Organizers say Paris will provide an unforgettable backdrop to the Olympics, with events interspersed among its iconic landmarks. The arrival of Celine Dion and Lady Gaga has led to speculation that they could even take the stage today. 👀

The election

CNN -  The Trump campaign on Thursday said it would not commit to any future presidential debates until the Democratic Party formally chooses a nominee. Vice President Kamala Harris on Thursday said she's "ready" to debate former President Donald Trump, and earlier this week, Trump said he "absolutely" wants to debate Harris. The Biden and Trump campaigns had agreed to a debate hosted by ABC on September 10, but it is unclear if it will go on as planned. Fox News has also proposed a debate between Trump and Harris on September 17 in Pennsylvania. Analysts say a Harris v. Trump debate could be the sort of showdown that would attract tens of millions of viewers and potentially change the trajectory of the race.

Food

NPR - “Boneless” chicken wings are not guaranteed to be free of bones, as decided by the Ohio Supreme Court yesterday.

Climate change

WhoWhatWhy -  According to the Carbon Monitor Project, the total global climate pollution released between February and May 2024 declined slightly from the amount released during the same period in 2023. Many experts believe that the clean energy transition has reached the point where emissions will stabilize and then begin to decline. The critical milestone of peak climate pollution might be happening right now. And it’s happening none too soon. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported in early June that “carbon is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than ever — accelerating on a steep rise to levels far above any experienced in human existence.”

“Over the past year we’ve experienced the hottest year on record, the hottest ocean temperatures on record, and a seemingly endless string of heat waves, droughts, floods, wildfires, and storms,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad. “Now we are finding that atmospheric CO2 levels are increasing faster than ever. We must recognize that these are clear signals of the damage carbon dioxide pollution is doing to the climate system, and take rapid action to cut fossil fuel use as quickly as we can.”

Alcohol

Guardian - For the regular boozer it is a source of great comfort: the fat pile of studies that say a daily tipple is better for a longer life than avoiding alcohol completely.But a new analysis challenges the thinking and blames the rosy message on flawed research that compares drinkers with people who are sick and sober.

Scientists in Canada delved into 107 published studies on people’s drinking habits and how long they lived. In most cases, they found that drinkers were compared with people who abstained or consumed very little alcohol, without taking into account that some had cut down or quit through ill health.

The finding means that amid the abstainers and occasional drinkers are a significant number of sick people, bringing the group’s average health down, and making light to moderate drinkers look better off in comparison. “It’s been a propaganda coup for the alcohol industry to propose that moderate use of their product lengthens people’s lives,” said Dr Tim Stockwell, first author on the study and a scientist at the Canadian Institute for Substance Use Research at the University of Victoria.

 

 

Polling update

ARIZONA
Harris-Trump-Others one poll: Trump leads by 8% - up 8% from 2020
Electoral vote change Dems down 11 compared to 2020

GEORGIA
Three poll average: Harris/Trump/Others Trump up 4% from 2020
Last three poll average: Biden Trump/Others Trump up 5% from 2020
Electoral vote change: Dems  down 16 compared to 2020

MICHIGAN
2020 3%
Last poll Harris/Trump TIE  Down 3% from 2020
Three poll average Biden/Harris Trump led by 3 Biden was down 6% from 2020
Electoral vote too close to call

PENNSYLVANIA   
2024 Trump vs. Harris 3 poll average:  Trump leads by 3% - 4% better than 2020
2024 Trump/Biden/Others  3 poll average Trump led by 4% -  5% better than 2020
Dems Electoral vote down 20

WISCONSIN
2024 Harris/Trump 0
2024 Biden/Trump three poll average Trump led by 3% up 4% from 2020
Electoral vote of 10 to close to call

Bikes

Planetizen - Shared micromobility users in the United States and Canada took a record 157 million trips in 2023, according to a report from the National Association of City Transportation Officials (NACTO). “People took 133 million trips on shared micromobility in the U.S. Trips in the U.S. increased by 16% in 2023, driven largely by the continued growth of e-bike trips on larger station-based systems.” Canadian riders took 24 million trips. The report notes that “Despite the overwhelming popularity of these systems, many cities are grappling with the challenges of providing this essential service while facing limited financial and operational resources. A volatile private operator landscape coupled with increasing user costs threatens to limit the potential for shared micromobility to be affordable and accessible to all.”

Blacks

 Georgia denies state funding to teach Black studies classes

RFK Jr

Mother Jones - In a virtual event last week that was billed as a “Latino Town Hall,” presidential candidate and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. unveiled his plan to overhaul addiction treatment programs. Speaking during a live recording of the Latino Capitalist podcast, Kennedy described opioid, antidepressant, and ADHD “addicts” receiving treatment on tech-free “wellness farms,” where they would spend as much as three or four years growing organic produce.

Trump

 Some real facts about Trump and his fellow presidents

Political Wire - “I think you should get a one year jail sentence if you do anything to desecrate the American flag. Now, people will say, “Oh, it’s unconstitutional.’ Those are stupid people. Those are stupid people that say that.” -  Donald Trump, on Fox & Friends.

Harris

Tiffany Hsu, NY Times - Vice President Kamala Harris has been campaigning for president for three days. And she is already facing disinformation and abuse of a far different caliber than President Biden ever has... Here are the facts behind several conspiracy theories and misleading claims about Harris that have spread widely in recent days.

Harris’s heritage — her mother is from India and her father is from Jamaica — has once again become catnip for conspiracy theorists. Some claimed, falsely, that Harris was an “anchor baby” who was disqualified from seeking the presidency. Her parents’ immigration status is irrelevant to her eligibility to run; she was born in California and is a citizen. Other social media users said that Harris was “not Black” or “not Black enough.” She has repeatedly discussed her pride in her Indian and Black roots, including in her autobiography, in interviews and in speeches at Howard University, her alma mater and a historically Black school....

Harris was a prosecutor for three decades before being elected as California’s attorney general, where she investigated for-profit colleges and helped secure a multibillion-dollar relief settlement for homeowners affected by the foreclosure crisis. After handily winning election to the Senate in 2016, she was known for her courtroom-style questioning in hearings. The recent claims of her lack of qualifications largely ignored Trump’s nonexistent government experience when he first ran for office....

From Saturday to Monday, posts on X referring to claims that Harris “slept her way to the top” garnered nearly 40.3 million impressions — a 44,000 percent increase from the prior two-day period, according to the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, a nonprofit research group.The sexist insinuations point in part to her brief relationship in the 1990s with Willie Brown, who was 60 and the speaker of the California Assembly when Harris was 29 and rising in the Bay Area legal scene. He appointed Harris to two well-paid state board positions and introduced her to his political connections.

When she was campaigning to be San Francisco’s district attorney in 2003, her opponents repeatedly commented on her link to Brown — references that she told The New York Times in 2019 were “frustrating” and “designed to degrade, frankly, the conversation about why we needed a new D.A.”  MORE

Maine Public Radio -  As Biden’s vice president, Harris has remained in lockstep with the president on policy, including his steadfast commitment to the security of Israel.  “Vice President Harris has gone even a step further in taking a leadership role in condemning the horrific sexual violence that was perpetrated by Hamas,” said Halie Soifer, who served as national security adviser to Harris in the Senate and now runs the Jewish Democratic Council of America.

“I attended an event at the White House just last month where she was the leading voice from the White House in drawing attention to Hamas's use of rape as a weapon of war on that horrific day," Soifer said.Though the substance of what Harris has said is similar to Biden, when she speaks about the conflict, the vice president differs in tone, particularly in describing what she has called the “humanitarian catastrophe” in Gaza.“What we are seeing every day in Gaza is devastating,” Harris said during a speech in Selma, Ala., last March. “We have seen reports of families eating leaves or animal feed, women giving birth to malnourished babies with little or no medical care, and children dying from malnutrition and dehydration.”

Roll Call -  Expected Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has been an outspoken proponent of abortion access and maternal health during her time in Washington, but her Senate record demonstrates a wide range of health policy passions, from telemedicine to enforcing consumer protection laws... \

\In the Senate, Harris spent much of her time focusing on mental health, telemedicine and drug pricing. Harris was an early proponent of telehealth — even before the COVID-19 pandemic. In the Senate, she introduced legislation that would make it easier for Medicare beneficiaries to receive mental health telehealth services and to help mental health professionals repay their student loans faster. Although neither of those bills advanced out of committee, Congress has eliminated restrictions on telehealth coverage through the end of 2024, and lawmakers are considering making the changes permanent.  

Harris also led Senate efforts to curb racism among health care workers and reduce racial disparities in COVID-19 outcomes. She introduced two bills to increase non-bias training for health care providers during the pandemic and track race and ethnicity data when it came to COVID-19. She focused much of her Senate health policy work on maternal health — especially Black maternal health, as Black women are two to three times more likely to die of pregnancy complications than white women, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

During her time in the Senate, she introduced several bills aimed at curbing the maternal mortality crisis in the United States, most notably as a co-sponsor of the “momnibus” measure, a package of 13 bills aimed at improving maternal health, with a focus on Black women...

In 2022, as vice president, Harris announced a nationwide Blueprint for Addressing the Maternal Health Crisis. She played a key role in the Biden administration’s push for states to expand Medicaid postpartum coverage from two to 12 months, creating “birthing friendly” hospital designations and launching the maternal mental health hotline.

When she ran for the Democratic Party’s 2020 presidential nomination, Harris co-sponsored Sen. Bernie Sanders’ “Medicare for All” bill before introducing her own version that included private insurance. The walk-back was met with criticism from progressive voters.

 

Signs of our times

Sign Appreciation Society

 

Money

AFP - The world's richest one percent increased their fortunes by a total of $42 trillion over the past decade, Oxfam said Thursday, ahead of a G20 summit in Brazil where taxing the super-rich tops the agenda. Despite this windfall, taxes on the rich had plummeted to "historic lows", the NGO added, warning of "obscene levels" of inequality with the rest of the world "left to scrap for crumbs".

Driving

 Sacrameto Bee -  California has the most confrontational drivers in the country, Forbes Advisor said, with “a high percentage of drivers experiencing some type of road rage, including being cut off, cursed at and tailgating.” This year, it replaced Arizona as the No. 1 state in the United States for road rage. This is a huge jump from 2023, when California was ranked at No. 13.

According to Forbes Advisor, California had the third-highest percentage of drivers who have had other motorists cut them off on purpose in 2024. Nearly 50% of drivers in California have experienced this, the study found

California ranked fourth in the nation in terms of the percentage of drivers who have “been on the receiving end of yelling, insults, curses or threats,” according to Forbes Advisor.

About 32% of drivers in the Golden State have faced verbal abuse from other motorists. About 11% of California drivers have seen other motorists leave their vehicles to fight or yell at them, Forbes Advisor said, and about 35% reported that other drivers tried to block their car from merging or changing lanes.

This is a stark contrast to Hawaii, which was ranked at the bottom of the list of states with confrontational drivers.In Hawaii, only 1% of drivers experienced road rage very frequently.

These are the top 10 states in the United States with the most confrontational drivers, according to Forbes Advisor:

1. California
2. Missouri
3. Utah
4. Oklahoma
5. Colorado
6. Mississippi
7. Virginia (Tied with Indiana)
8. Indiana (Tied with Virginia)
9. New York
10. Maryland

Flying

CNN -  Southwest Airlines is shifting to assigned seats for the first time in its history, a change that will allow the low-fare carrier to charge a premium for some of the seats on its planes.

Poverty

NY Times -  Gov. Gavin Newsom will order California state officials on Thursday to begin dismantling thousands of homeless encampments, according to members of his administration, calling on government leaders to act on a recent Supreme Court decision “with urgency and dignity.”

Climate

CNN -  A lightning-sparked wildfire raging in eastern Oregon has scorched nearly 270,000 acres, making it the largest active wildfire in the US. The Durkee Fire, which has already burned an area larger than the entire city of Indianapolis, started over a week ago near the Oregon-Idaho state line and was still 0% contained as of early today. The extreme heat beating down on the West and other parts of the US this summer, along with high winds, could be a recipe for danger leading into the wildfire season, firefighters have warned. Meanwhile, wildfires have forced a town and a major national park in Canada's Alberta province to be evacuated. Several buildings have been burned by one of two raging wildfires menacing the town of Jasper in the Canadian Rockies' largest national park, authorities said today.

Food

 USA Today -  A recall of potentially contaminated cucumbers sold at Walmart stores in three states has been expanded to include more vegetables sold at Walmart and Aldi stores across more than a dozen states. Wiers Farm, based in Willard, Ohio, has expanded its recall to include more produce "out of an abundance of caution," the company said in the recall notice on Monday. Wiers Farms issued an initial recall of whole and salad cucumbers for possible listeria contamination on June 12.

The recall now includes vegetables such as green beans and peppers sold at Walmart and Aldi stores in several states, according to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Other vegetables sold individually in bulk in 18 states have also been recalled for listeria risk, according to the FDA. Listeria is a type of bacteria that can contaminate foods. When eaten, it can lead to an infection with symptoms such as fever, muscle aches, and gastrointestinal issues, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. About 1,600 people get sick from listeria each year and about 260 die, the CDC says.

 

Familiies

 NPR - Tweens might not be getting enough sleep due to how they use their electronic devices before bedtime. Scientists looked at nearly 9,400 11- and 12-year-olds for the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study, a long-term study of brain development and child health in the U.S. Researchers asked tweens and their parents detailed questions about how they used screens around bedtime and how well they slept. Then a follow-up was done a year later. Here’s how parents can help their kids have better quality sleep.

💤 No screens for an hour before bedtime.

💤 Turn phones all the way off at night. Don’t just put it on vibrate.

💤 Resist the urge to check your phone if you wake up in the middle of the night.

💤 Keep phones in another room at bedtime.

 

Middle East

NPR - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended his administration's war efforts yesterday in his first address to the U.S. Congress since the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks. He called on the U.S. to stand with Israel, urged Congress to fast-track additional military aid and vowed that his country would do “whatever it must” to defeat Hamas. Dozens of Democratic lawmakers boycotted the speech, and thousands of protesters marched outside the Capitol. Netanyahu is expected to meet separately with Biden and Harris today and with former President Donald Trump tomorrow. The Israeli prime minister's visit comes at a crucial time in American politics, as Harris looks to strike a delicate balance on Israel ahead of the 2024 election.

NPR’s Asma Khalid says that multiple people have told her that Harris shows a greater degree of empathy for Palestinian civilians than Biden. She was also one of the earlier people in the administration to show a less dismissive response to the pro-Palestinian protests in the U.S. Some Democrats who voted uncommitted during the primaries are now willing to give Harris a chance. But that doesn’t mean they will certainly vote for her. Khalid says that as Harris runs for president, she will need to avoid alienating Israel supporters while winning back some of the young, progressive brown and Black voters that Biden alienated with his actions.

Media

Hartmann Report -Donald Trump took the first step to extinguishing the free and independent press in American yesterday, when federal judge and Bush-appointee Cecilia Altonaga ruled that his defamation lawsuit against George Stephanopoulos and ABC News could go forward. She ruled that “a reasonable jury could conclude Plaintiff was defamed and, as a result, dismissal is inappropriate.” (emphasis hers)

 Stephanopoulos had asked Republican Representative Nancy Mace how she could continue to support Trump when he had been “found liable for rape.” Trump is claiming that question libeled him and asking for damages that could run into the tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars. You’d think he doesn’t have a case. When a jury of his peers found in favor of E. Jean Caroll in her defamation case against Trump, Judge Lewis Kaplan noted:

“[T]he jury’s finding that Mr. Trump ‘sexually abused’ Ms Carroll implicitly determined that he forcibly penetrated her digitally – in other words, that Mr Trump in fact did ‘rape’ Ms Carroll as that term commonly is used and understood in contexts outside of the New York penal law.”

Nonetheless, Judge Altonaga is letting Trump’s lawsuit against the reporter and news organization go forward. This is a very, very big deal that could signal the beginning of the end for a free and open press in America.

Polling update

In an average of seven polls taken after Biden had pulled out, Trump leads by a margin of 1 point - a statistical tie.