Axios - The economy is shaped by countless forces beyond presidential policies, but two recent reports from Wall Street economists predict that trade wars under a Trump administration would slow down the U.S. economy.
- Goldman Sachs says a Trump victory — with divided government or Republican control of both houses of Congress — would result in a 0.5 percentage point drag on GDP in the second half of next year.
- Nomura economists estimate that Trump's planned tariffs would increase inflation by 0.75 percentage points in 2025.
If Vice President Harris wins — and if the Democrats control the House and Senate — Goldman predicts a "very slight boost" to GDP on average between next year and 2026. Get Axios Macro
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