Polls

Bowers News Media - Texas: Three to five seats for Republicans. Over the summer, Texas Republicans passed new maps with the intention of netting Republicans five additional seats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 election. However, the map they drew actually left open the possibility that Democrats would still win two of those five seats, especially in a good year for Democrats like 2026. So, in reality, the new Texas map netted Republicans three to five seats.

California: Likely four or five seats for Democrats. In response to Texas, Democrats in California put Proposition 50 on the ballot. If Pop 50 passes–and polls show it up by over 20 points, not to mention that opponents have stopped buying ads against it–then it will allow Golden State Democrats to redraw their congressional map. While we do not know exactly what sort of map they will draw, an early draft that was released in August would precisely cancel out Texas by netting Democrats between three and five seats. However, in a good year for Democrats, which 2026 likely will be, its more like four or five seats, with only Republican David Valadao having a good chance of staying in Congress.

Utah: Zero to two Democratic seats. Republicans in Utah were forced by courts to redraw their gerrymandered map that resulted in a 4-0 GOP sweep of the congressional seats in the state. The new map, which Republicans are trying to block, would result in one Democratic seat in a good year for Team Blue, and two seats in a very good year.

Missouri: Zero or one seat for Republicans. Missouri Republicans passed a new map that would net them an additional seat in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections. However, Democrats and citizens groups are aiming to pass a ballot measure that would block the new map. If they succeed, there will likely be no change to the partisan balance in Missouri's congressional delegation.

North Carolina: Zero or one seat for Republicans. North Carolina Republicans passed a new map that would change a district held by moderate Democrat Don Davis from a 51-48 pro-Trump seat in 2024 to a 55-44 pro-Trump seat now (click here for my source on those numbers). This might be enough to sink Davis, but in a good year for Democrats it also might not be. So, this one is either zero or one seat for Republicans, at least in 2026.

Virginia: Zero to three seats for Democrats. In a surprise move, Virginia Democrats have begun the process of mid-decade redistricting. If their effort succeeds–something which requires Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger to win the November 4 gubernatorial election in Virginia–it would net Democrats anywhere from zero to three seats. Spanberger is up by an average of 8.0 points in the 270toWin polling average of the state, so she is looking pretty good to be the next governor of Virginia right now.

Others: Unclear. Several other states have been approached by either national Republicans or Democrats in mid-decade redistricting, but with little success so far. The Downballot has an excellent resource summarizing where every state stands on redistricting at the current moment.

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Yahoo - Americans are worried about the cost of basic needs including healthcare, food, housing and energy, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found, suggesting those concerns could be critical in next year’s midterm elections that will determine control of the U.S. Congress.

Affordability worries helped power Republican President Donald Trump's 2024 election. But 10 months into his second term, voters have continued to face high prices for everyday staples – and are looking for relief.

Some 40% of respondents in the six-day poll, which closed on Monday, said candidates' positions on the cost-of-living would be the single biggest factor in their vote next year, compared to 28% who said the top issue would be protecting democracy and democratic norms. Another 14% said immigration was the biggest issue and 9% said crime.