Polls

Newsweek -  The latest data from Civiqs shows that Trump remains strongest in traditionally conservative states in the West and South where he achieved decisive electoral victories, while facing deep unpopularity in Democratic-leaning states.  Meanwhile, in the swing states, Trump's approval is generally underwater ahead of the 2026 midterms.

The data highlights how sharply divided the country remains and suggests that even after winning the 2024 election, Trump faces persistent challenges in broadening his appeal.

In swing states, where his approval is only slightly below 50 percent, his ability to maintain political momentum could influence legislative priorities, party strategy, and the positioning of potential challengers.

President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office of the White House, Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

What To Know

In traditionally conservative states, Trump remains strongly supported. Wyoming leads with 65 percent approval, 31 percent disapproval, and a net approval of +34. West Virginia follows at 61 percent approve, 33 percent disapprove (+28), while North Dakota, Idaho, and Montana also maintain net approvals above +20, highlighting a consistent base of support in the West and parts of the South.

By contrast, Trump faces significant opposition in Democratic-leaning states, particularly on the coasts.

Hawaii shows just 21 percent approve, 75 percent disapprove, with a net approval of −54, and Vermont is similarly lopsided at 24 percent approve, 72 percent disapprove (−48). California and New York remain heavily negative, with net approvals of −38 and −32, despite Trump winning 29 percent and 44 percent of the vote in 2024, respectively.

Other states such as Maryland, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island also continue to reflect strong resistance, with net approvals ranging from −40 to −42.

Swing states, which were decisive in the 2024 election, show a more nuanced picture. In Pennsylvania, where he narrowly won 51 percent of the vote, approval now stands at 43 percent with 52 percent disapprove, giving a net of −9. Michigan and Wisconsin show similar trends, with approval around 41–43 percent, disapproval 54 percent, and net approval at −11 to −13.

North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada also lean slightly negative, with net approvals ranging from −7 to −10. While Trump retains a dedicated base of roughly 40–44 percent in these battlegrounds, disapproval consistently outweighs support, suggesting that public opinion is less enthusiastic than the election results might suggest.

It comes as Morning Consult polling showed this week that for the first time since Trump's second term began, his approval rating was underwater in every swing state.

Thomas Gift, associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, told Newsweek that ahead of the midterms, the polling is "bad news for Trump and the GOP."

"The fact that Trump's approval is underwater in every swing state underscores how divisive his presidency continues to be — he’s consolidating his base but struggling to broaden it. Trump not being on the top of the ticket in 2026 also spells challenges for Republicans, as in the past they’ve underperformed in many state races when Trump wasn’t in the running,” he said.

Newsweek - California Governor Gavin Newsom has suffered a setback in early polling for the 2028 Democratic presidential race, with new surveys showing his support slipping. The latest Noble Predictive Insights poll, conducted between October 2-6, shows that among Democrats and independents Newsom is now trailing former Vice President Kamala Harris for the 2028 nomination, after leading her in August.

Newsweek -  Traditionally, the party that does not hold the White House tends to do better in midterm elections. In 2018, Republicans lost the House and the Democrats gained 41 seats....

In the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, Republicans hold a narrow 219-213 majority, meaning a net loss of just six seats would cost them control of the chamber. This, in turn, would affect their ability to pass key legislation and advance Republican policies.

According to a Center Square Voter's Voice poll, 34 percent of independents would vote for a Democratic candidate if congressional elections were held today, while 25 percent would choose a Republican candidate. A further 31 percent were unsure.

Noble Predictive Insights conducted a poll of 2,565 registered voters between October 2 and 6, with a margin of error of +/2 percentage points. The survey found that overall, the Democratic Party had a 2 percent lead among all voters, with 45 percent saying they would choose a Democratic candidate and 43 percent voting for a Republican. Ten percent said they were unsure.