Climate change

 Ben Geman, Axios  -  An ambitious new effort to reframe the U.S. approach to climate is taking a sledgehammer to shibboleths on the left and the right.  The Climate Realism Initiative warns of massive threats to the U.S., while arguing the country's past approach focused on the wrong things.

The initiative "says two things that almost never get uttered in the same sentence," said Varun Sivaram, director of the new Council on Foreign Relations program.

• "I think climate is a grave national security threat on the level of all-out war," he said ahead of today's launch event.
• "On the other hand, I don't actually think that spending a trillion dollars on reducing American emissions expensively and not very intelligently is the right policy response."

Sivaram, a former top aide to Biden-era U.S. climate diplomat John Kerry (among other gigs), just penned an essay that sets the stage for the seven-figure program.  It warns of "fallacies" including:

• Thinking that Paris temperature targets are achievable.
• Thinking that cutting U.S. emissions can make a meaningful difference, noting the U.S. will be roughly 5% of future cumulative emissions this century.
• Believing that climate change poses manageable risks to U.S. prosperity and security.

His piece argues U.S. policymakers should brace for warming of at least 3°C this century. The country must prepare for the migration, security and resilience ramifications.

Other parts of the "realism" doctrine that centers U.S. economic and security interests include:

• Focusing on industries where the U.S. will have an edge, like next-gen geothermal, advanced nuclear, and solid-state batteries — and work to disseminate this tech globally.
• Elevating climate as a top national security priority.
• Developing and testing geoengineering.

The doctrine also says advanced economies should use trade tools that penalize nations with large, fast-rising emissions....

Sivaram stressed in our interview that he was speaking and writing for himself and that different scholars taking part will have different views.