CLIMATE CHANGE

Guardian - The world is still underestimating the risk of catastrophic climate breakdown and ecosystem collapse, the UN secretary general has warned in the run-up to Cop29, acknowledging that the rise in global heating is on course to soar past 1.5C (2.7F) over pre-industrial levels in the coming years. Humanity is approaching potentially irreversible tipping points such as the collapse of the Amazon rainforest and the Greenland ice sheet as global temperatures rise, António Guterres has said, warning that governments are not making the deep cuts to greenhouse gas emissions needed to limit warming to safe levels.Speaking to the Guardian, the UN secretary general said that a second US departure from the Paris climate agreement under a new Donald Trump presidency would risk crippling the process but said the accord would survive.

Guardian - The physical shocks caused by climate breakdown will hit global economic growth by a third, according to a risk assessment by a network of central banks.The rise in the estimated hit to the world’s economies as a result of the shocks from flooding, droughts, temperature rises, and mitigating and adapting to extreme weather was the result of new climate modelling published this year.

Axios Generate -  President-elect Trump's decisive reelection this week poses a major roadblock for countries seeking to address global climate change via the UN negotiations process. With the world now on course to sail past the Paris temperature targets, countries can't wait until 2029 to curtail emissions and get money flowing to the most vulnerable nations.

• Major questions loom about which nations — if any — will fill the vacuum left when Trump pulls the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement.
• He yanked the U.S. in his first term and plans to again.

The first test of the election's ramifications for climate diplomacy will come before that, however. Starting Nov. 11, diplomats will meet in Baku, Azerbaijan, for the annual UN climate summit, known as COP29.

• The top goal of the talks is for countries to agree to a new annual funding commitment to help developing countries adapt to climate change impacts and curtail their emissions.
• At the summit, the U.S. delegation — led by top climate diplomat John Podesta — will now be lame ducks. New financial commitments will be viewed with skepticism.
• The two most likely parties to step up their roles are the European Union and China, the latter of which is the world's biggest emitter of planet-warming greenhouse gases from burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas.

China historically hasn't been a leader in the talks, instead often acting with or via other nations with similar interests.

• Also, key European leaders plan to sit out. They include German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, based on a list of speakers at the summit's heads of state portion.