Workers

Time -  Surprisingly, one economic issue the candidates have yet to address is one in which millions of voters have a great deal at stake: the looming impact of new generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) technologies on work and livelihoods. The candidates’ silence belies a stark reality: the next president will take office in a world already changed by GenAI—and heading for much greater disruption.

Our new research at Brookings shows why this requires urgent attention and why it matters to voters. In a new study using data provided by one of the leading AI developers, OpenAI, we analyzed over a thousand occupations for their likely exposure to GenAI and its growing capabilities. Overall, we find that some 30% of the workforce could see at least half of their work tasks impacted—though not necessarily automated fully—by today’s GenAI, while more than 85% of all workers could see at least 10% of their tasks impacted. Even more powerful models are planned for release soon, with those requiring minimal human oversight likely to follow.

America’s workers are smart. They are far more concerned about GenAI reshaping livelihoods than leaders in government and business have acknowledged so far. In a 2023 Pew Center survey, nearly two-thirds (62%) of adults say they believe GenAI will have a major impact on jobs and jobholders—mostly negative—over the next two decades....

Who will be most affected by GenAI? Most of us will probably be surprised. We tend to think of men in blue-collar, physical roles in factories and warehouses as the workers most exposed to automation, and frequently they have been, along with dock workers and others. Yet GenAI, and the related software systems it integrates with, turn these assumptions on their head: manually intensive blue-collar roles are likely to be least and last affected. The same applies to electricians, plumbers and other relatively well-paying skilled trades occupations boosted by the nation’s net zero transition and massive investments in infrastructure. Instead, it is knowledge work: creative occupations, and office-based roles that are most exposed to technologies .... at least in the near term.