October 9, 2024

The election

Axios - Vice President Harris and former President Trump have vastly different worldviews — but actually disagree a helluva lot more about style than substance if you take them at their word. A combination of shifting demographics and political coalitions has formed a loose American consensus on many major policy topics. For the candidates, general election season often means sprinting to the center — both Trump and Harris have abandoned past positions and moderated on some of the campaign's biggest issues.

 Harris and Trump have massive disagreements on the power of the executive, use of the Justice Department, abortion access, environmental regulations, taxes — plus America's place in the world, including support for Ukraine.

But they basically agree on:

  • Stronger borders and tougher immigration laws: Harris and the Biden administration have embraced restrictions on asylum that resemble Trump policies they once opposed.
  • A tougher stance against China: The House Select Committee on China is the most bipartisan body on Capitol Hill. Both Trump and Biden policies treat Beijing as the greatest national security threat of the 21st century — even as wars in the Middle East and Ukraine dominate the news.
  • Increasing domestic energy production, including fracking: Trump constantly talks about wanting to "drill, baby, drill" on Day One of his presidency. But as Harris pointed out in their debate, U.S. oil and gas production has actually hit record highs under President Biden.
  • Providing incentives for U.S. manufacturing: The free-trade consensus of the 1990s has collapsed, fueled by the hollowing out of America's industrial base. Trump wants to deploy massive tariffs to compel companies to manufacture in the U.S., while Harris favors tax credits like the ones in the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act.
  • Supporting Israel and its wars: The rhetoric on Gaza is different. But the policies are largely the same: Both parties support continuing military aid to Israel as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prosecutes a regional war against Iran and its proxies.
  • Providing more child-care assistance to parents: Harris has proposed expanding the child tax credit to $6,000 for new parents. Sen. JD Vance has floated a $5,000 child tax credit and embraced consensus on the child-care crisis in last week's VP debate.
  • Protecting IVF treatment: Trump scrambled to portray himself as a champion of fertility treatments after backlash to an Alabama Supreme Court ruling earlier this year. He's even proposed making IVF free for all women who need it — raising eyebrows from his own party.
  • Opposing a national abortion ban: Trump recently said he would veto a federal abortion ban if it ever passed Congress, trying to neutralize one of his biggest vulnerabilities after appointing the Supreme Court justices who helped end Roe v. Wade.
  • Ignoring the deficit: Both candidates' platforms would add trillions to already-enormous U.S. fiscal deficits over the next decade, although Trump's plans are more expensive.
  • Protecting Social Security and Medicare: Trump has pledged not to touch the third rail of politics, even floating a plan to cut Social Security taxes for seniors.
  • No tax on tips.

Trump's base is now the working class, and he's making inroads with union members and non-white voters. He's more open than ever to spending lots of government money on big government programs. Harris' base includes more rich white people than ever, and she's making a concerted play for Never-Trump Republicans to win key swing states. So she's moderated her most liberal positions. Hence, the surprising agreement. 

States With the Best & Worst Representation on Election Day

Roll Call - Eight years after Russian influence efforts sought to boost Trump’s 2016 presidential run, U.S. government officials are looking to deliver more information to the public about how oversea powers are seeking to manipulate the hearts and minds of Americans during the election, according to outside experts.

David Salvo, an expert on Russian affairs and a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, said there appears to be a “whole of government effort” to raise awareness about the tactics that foreign actors are using to interfere in U.S. democracy. “This is a top priority in 2024 for the U.S. government in ways that it wasn’t in 2016 because it wasn’t on anyone’s agenda right until very late in the game,” Salvo said...

U.S. government officials have leaned on traditional enforcement methods, such as indictments and sanctions, ahead of the November election, and for months in speeches and press releases have sought to highlight foreign election influence.

The high-stakes effort has taken on new salience with less than a month before Election Day, as polls show tight margins between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump in key battleground states expected to decide the race.

Matthew Olsen, the assistant attorney general for national security, in a speech last month said that intelligence community leaders are “sounding the alarm” on attacks and commented that efforts to manipulate voters ahead of the election “present a clear and present danger to our democracy.”...

On Capitol Hill, administration officials have testified before lawmakers on what they say are malicious efforts from Russia, Iran and China to influence U.S. elections....


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