May 24, 2024

The polling problem for Trump

NY Times - The polls have shown Donald Trump with an edge for eight straight months, but there’s a sign his advantage might not be quite as stable as it looks: His lead is built on gains among voters who aren’t paying close attention to politics, who don’t follow traditional news and who don’t regularly vote.Disengaged voters on the periphery of the electorate are driving the polling results — and the story line — about the election.

A chart shows that registered voters who did not vote in 2020 increasingly support Donald Trump, by a 14-point margin in 2024.
Source: New York Times/Siena College surveys | 2020 data is adjusted to election results.

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