October 21, 2022

Where the election is probably already decided

 Democracy SOS - Electing our representatives one geographic district at a time has resulted in a stunning lack of competition, a veritable sea of safe legislative seats, both red (Republican) and blue (Democratic). Out of 435 U.S. House seats in each election, experts can reliably predict who is going to win 390 to 400 of them, about 90 percent. They not only can tell you who will win, but the margin of victory.

State legislative races are even worse. In 2020, 27% of the 7383 state seats were uncontested, including 75% in Massachusetts, 61% in Wyoming, 58% in Rhode Island, 57% in Arkansas and 51% in Georgia. It is a competition wasteland out there, all across the country because the districts are such lopsided strongholds for one party that it’s a waste of time for another party to run.

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