While Sanders is doing well in the Democratic primaries, it is worth noting that the percent he got in Nevada is close to the percent of "liberals" in the Democratic Party. This amounts to 25% of the overall vote nationally. You need more than that to win.
Our five poll average finds every major Democratic candidate in a statistical tie with Trump. What this suggests is that the election outcome will be more dependent on screw ups between now and then by Trump, rather than by the virtues of the Democratic candidate.
Sanders would be 79 years old if inaugurated as the next president. Biden and Bloomberg would be 78. In other words, these leading Dems would be 8 or 9 years older than Trump was when he was inaugurated as the oldest president in a first term. This is rarely mentioned in the press as is the fact that Sanders had a heart attack just four months ago.
Liberals, like conservatives, tend to view their politics much as people regard their religion. The problem with this is that politics is decided by all voters, not just those of one's beliefs. You need the best candidate who can still win. You are choosing a battlefield, not a saint.
Biden and Sanders beat Trump in two non-bue states each. Buttigieg beats Trump in 1. Biden ties with Trump in 10 non-blue states, Warren in 8, Buttigieg in 6, Sanders in 5, and Klobuchar in 3.
2 comments:
No, the statistical tie simply points to how utterly dependent prediction models are on turnout, and how much outcomes hinge on generating turnout. And if you want to mobilize enthusiasm and turnout, you appeal to the people who showed up in record numbers to create the Blue Wave of 2018. Nominating some stale centrist piece of wonder bread like Biden or Bloomberg is the way to absolutely guarantee they'll stay home like they did for Clinton.
Statistical tie dealt with, let's look at how "Sanders is doing well." How well is nearly 46.8% of the vote, more than double the 2nd place finisher and 24 delegates of the 36 available?
And about the latest narrative that if all the "moderates" all get behind one person, that would finish off Sanders. In Nevada, If all the other "moderates" asked their 7,703 voters to go to Biden, it would take less than 14% of those voters to switch instead to Sanders for Biden to remain second. I think that is extremely conservative.
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