April 16, 2018

Did Comey really ruin Clinton's chances?

Sam Smith -  After watching James Comey's television interview, I went back and checked the polls taken before and after his controversial statement on Hillary Clinton's emails. The national ones did not quite fit the pattern Clinton's supporters claim, and, if in fact, Comey seriously hurt Clinton's chances, it should have showed up in national surveys stronger than they did.

My sense is that this is another case of the Clintons successfully manipulating the media,  Here, just for the record, are some of the national results for Clinton before and after Comey's statement:
  • Princeton: down 4 points after the release but down only 2 by the election
  • MCClatchy-Marist: down 2 points from September to election
  • Franklin Pierce/Boston Herald: Up 2 points
  • CBS: Down 2 points
  • Five Thirty Eight: Down 3 points
  • Monmouth: Up 2 points
  • Bloomberg: Down 4 points
  • Washington: No change
  • Investors Daily: Down 2 points
In short, the national polls were a hodge podge mostly within a national poll average error rater of 2%. And there is no scientific way of blaming even this shift of votes on Comey's statement.


Anonymous said...

Mate Silver disagrees

Anonymous said...

The notion of tampering with elections is introduced to strengthen the unexamined assumption that we have democratic elections. As long as the billions of dollars to buy elections are domestic then the election is deemed fair. But what does it matter if the oligarch donor is foreign? AIPAC assumes that foreign association is beneficial. TPP would have turned over some government functions to foreign oligarchs. Only because the Roberts Court ruled that foreigners cannot overtly play at the casino it protects under freedom of speech. While upholding the basic principle of government of, by and for the global high rollers. Like the cookie shop in the front room of the betting parlor. The oligarchs, like the Saudis, can buy our politicians just not through visible campaign financing deals.