November 6, 2017

Risk of war with North Korea

NY Times - John Brennan, the former head of the C.I.A., estimates the chance of a war with North Korea at 20 to 25 percent.
Joel S. Wit, a Korea expert at Johns Hopkins University, puts it at 40 percent.
Richard Haass, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, says the odds may be somewhere around 50/50.

The Congressional Research Service last month estimated that as many as 300,000 people could die in the first few days of war — and that’s if it remains nonnuclear. If there is a nuclear exchange, “there easily could be a million deaths on the first day,” says Scott Sagan, an international security expert at Stanford.


Anonymous said...

Have these people been taking Trump's babble seriously?

Does anyone here believe that war with NK is really Trump's decision? It isn't. He will do as his controllers direct, and compared to Trump they are relatively sane.

Anonymous said...

Just a thought....

Just who is backing N. Korea? They certainly haven't progressed technically all on their own. Is it China? Certainly a possibility.

And what if it is? Is N. Korea just a "bait"?

Anonymous said...

There won't be a war. Massacre, maybe, but not a war. NK wouldn't last 3 days, and if China made the mistake of coming in, they'd be done in 2 weeks. One saturation-bombing raid on Pyongyang, one each on Shanghai, Beijing/Tianjin, Nanjing, and Shenzhen: tout fini.

Anonymous said...

Korea and China are both integral parts of the supply chain for US Multinational business - conditions that were not true in the early 1950s. Any military conflict will tank the world economy, starting with the US, with absolutely catastrophic results. Anybody who thinks the US can just bomb SK into submission is a complete idiot.