August 10, 2015

Morning Line

In our moving average Clinton is statistically tied with Bush (she is 3 points ahead) and six Republicans are only single digits behind her. These, however, do not include Trump who does worse against Clinton than 12 other candidates

On the other hand, Clinton is in a tight race in New Hampshire, where she is statistically tied by all the major GOP candidates except Trump who trails by 10

Among Republicans, with 23 points Trump leads Bush by 13 points, All the rest are in single digits

Clinton leads Sanders by 37 points, Biden by 43

Among Republicans Trump leads in 5 states, Bush and Walker lead in 3 states each, Huckabee in 2, Paul and Cruz in 1

None of the polling data shows Trump a significant player unless he runs as a third party candidate in which case he will make it easier for Clinton to win.

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