July 6, 2015

Morning Line

In our moving average Hillary Clinton is safely ahead of all Republican candidates except for Rand Paul whom she only leads by four points. Carson, Cruz, Fiorina and Romney are six points behind which means a four point shift could put them ahead. Bush is nine points behind.

In our moving poll average, Bush has a clear lead among Republicans. Trump is the only other in double digits. Walker has slipped from 2nd to 5th place, with Carson and Paul one point ahead of him.

Clinton leads by 43 points over Sanders

Among Republicans Bush leads in 5 states, Walker in 4, Huckabee in 3, Paul and Cruz in1

The GOP only stands to pick up 15 electoral votes over 20012

In Senate races, Democrats stand to pick up 2 seats and could pick up 3 more. This is one short of what they need for a majority.

3 comments:

Eric Dondero said...

Hmmn? Ron Paul is running? He came out of retirement? Wow. That's big news.

Perhaps you meant to say Rand Paul.

An embarrassing mistake like that kind of leads one to question your poll results, if you can't even get your Rands and Rons right.

Anonymous said...

Has anyone polled Sanders against likely Republican nominees? E.g., Sanders v Bush, Sanders v Walker, Sanders v Paul, Sanders v Cruz, etc.?

Sam Smith said...

Haven't seen any polls of Sanders vs. GOP candidates