The role of oil in foreign interventions

Washington's Blog -The Independent reports that a new study conducted in the Universities of Portsmouth, Warwick and Essex, and published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution, finds that “hydrocarbons play an even bigger role in conflicts” than “conspiracy theorists” ever imagined.

…foreign intervention in a civil war is 100 times more likely when the afflicted country has high oil reserves than if it has none.

…a third party is 100 times more likely to intervene when the country at war is a big producer and exporter of oil…

…suggesting hydrocarbons were a major reason for the [US/UK] military intervention in Libya … and the current US campaign against Isis in northern Iraq.

“After a rigorous and systematic analysis, we found that the role of economic incentives emerges as a key factor in intervention,” said co-author Dr Vincenzo Bove, of the University of Warwick. “Before the Isis forces approached the oil-rich Kurdish north of Iraq, Isis was barely mentioned in the news. But once Isis got near oil fields, the siege of Kobani in Syria became a headline and the US sent drones to strike Isis targets,” he added.

[The study] found that the decision to intervene was dominated by the third-party’s need for oil, far more than historical, geographic or ethnic ties.