Fourteen years ago, the Review was one of two sites on the web that projected winners based on the moving average of the polls. That year we were 3 points off in the national race and 4 points in state level races, which is to say within the margin of error.
In calculating, we don't include polls in which someone is leading by 20 points or more as these tend to be quite inaccurate. But of the rest, based on the moving average, we only guessed the wrong winner in two Senate races and three governorship races. Our error rate was four points in each group.
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