From a 2012 Daily Beast chat with Obamacare architect Jonathan Gruber:
Question: What are your thoughts on how the arguments are going at Supreme Court?
Jonathan Gruber: Going into the hearings I was very confident. Now I am less so. Almost all experts have said this was a very clear legal call in favor of the mandate, but the conservative [sic] justices appear to be taking a very libertarian [sic] stand in their questioning. I still think it will pass muster, but 5-4 at best.
Question: Who will cast deciding vote? Kennedy?
Gruber: There was initially hope that both Roberts & Scalia might be supportive. Clearly Scalia is a lost case. Roberts isn't looking good either. So it will be Kennedy.
Question: Do you think the lawmakers regret not labeling it a tax rather than a penalty?
Gruber: I don't think so because it never would have passed if they labeled it a tax. Better to have a 50-50 shot at the Supremes than a zero shot in Congress. It's a sad statement about budget politics in the U.S., but there you have it.
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