Morning Line: Buckle up

Sam Smith - We now have less than a month before what could prove to be one of the most important elections in modern times. If the GOP takes over the Senate, which seems likely at present, an already massively dysfunctional Washington will be divided by a cruel, ignorant, and corrupt GOP Congress in continual combat with one of the least politically effective Democratic presidents in the past century backed by a party without a comprehensible or appealing platform.

At the moment our moving average shows that Republicans stand to gain  3 new Senate seats and could pick up 7 more. The Democrats could pick up 2. Kansas will gain an independent. The current Democratic 8 seat margin plus 2 independents could easily be flipped to a Republican majority. One of the Independents, Angus King, has said he might caucus with the Republicans so it is uncertain whether the GOP needs a 5 or 6 net gain to take over the Senate. And in Kansas, leader and independent Orman says he'll vote with the clear majority if there is one, but otherwise it's probable which side gives him the best deal.

As for Obama, whether you agree with his views or not, the fact  is that he has been unable to deliver them in a way that inspires much excitement or support. Ed O’Keefe described well just one part of the problem recently in the Washington Post:

Poll numbers for Obama and Democrats have also dropped further among Hispanics than the population at large. One group has even launched a campaign against four Democratic senators who backed a GOP proposal to bar Obama from taking any executive action on immigration.

… “The president has not helped us,” said activist Leo Murrieta, 28, who is working to register Latino voters in Colorado for Mi Familia Vota. “People are disappointed. They wanted action, they wanted activity, they wanted movement.”….

On a busy day, Murrieta and his team fan out to find would-be voters at grocery stores, elementary schools and bus stops in Denver and Pueblo, Colo. Murrieta said the typical number of sign-ups has plummeted from maybe a dozen a day before Obama’s decision to as few as three a day now.

Ken Burns’ documentary series on the Roosevelts dramatically illustrates the difference between FDR and Obama and their respective parties. Like that other Democratic shortfall, Jimmy Carter, Obama preaches to the public while FDR talked with it. Obama is always trying to prove how serious he is while FDR tried to prove how much fun he was. Obama has yet to come up with a policy that makes ordinary Americans say, “Oh yeah” while FDR did it all the time. And Obama too often acts as though the game doesn’t matter, while FDR played the game like a World Series coach.

Admittedly, FDR didn’t have to deal with the corporate piracy of politics or with the impact of TV advertising. But these factors merely make greater the importance of a politics that serves the people is an easily visible way. If the GOP, with no evidence, can convince Americans that it is on their side, there is no reason the Democrats couldn’t do better with real policies.  

Further, with the GOP controlling the Congress, it will be able to lay the groundwork for a full scale attack on Obama’s probable successor, Hillary Clinton, about whom Democrats have become delusional. They ignore all her political and ethical issues of the past and believe, as they did with Obama, that all you need is being the first of something.

Of course, there’s always the possibility that the Republicans will stupid themselves into one or more holes, allowing the Democrats to recover by default. But, in politics, it’s better to have more going for you more than the faults of your opponents.

Buckle up, folks. We’re in trouble again.