Jonathan Powell was one of the negotiators of the 1997 Northern Ireland peace deal.
Jonathan Powell, Guardian - When it comes to terrorism, governments seem to suffer from a
collective amnesia. All of our historical experience tells us that there
can be no purely military solution to a political problem, and yet
every time we confront a new terrorist group, we begin by insisting we
will never talk to them. As Dick Cheney put it, “we don’t negotiate with
evil; we defeat it”. In fact, history suggests we don’t usually defeat
them and we nearly always end up talking to them. Hugh Gaitskell, the
former Labour leader, captured it best when he said: “All terrorists, at
the invitation of the government, end up with drinks in the
Dorchester.”
Certainly that was true throughout the history of the British empire. Menachem Begin’s Irgun
was responsible for blowing up the King David Hotel in Jerusalem in
1946, killing 91 and injuring 46. The British authorities called him a
terrorist and tried to hunt him down. But when he became prime minister
of Israel and made peace with Egypt, we lauded him as a statesman. We
accused Jomo Kenyatta of being a terrorist and locked him up, but later
negotiated Kenyan independence with him. We exiled Archbishop Makarios
to the Seychelles for supporting terrorism but made peace with him and
he became the first leader of an independent Cyprus.
... he one thing I have learned, above all else, from the last 17 years
is that there is no such thing as an insoluble conflict with an armed
group – however bloody, difficult or ancient. Even the Middle East peace
process, which has stuttered on for decades, will in the end result in a
lasting agreement. The fact that it has failed so many times before
does not mean that it will always fail, and an eventual settlement will
be built on the past failures and the lessons learned from these
failures, as was the peace in Northern Ireland.
It is remarkable how quickly a conflict can shift from being regarded
as “insoluble” to one whose solution was “inevitable” as soon as an
agreement is signed. Beforehand, and even up to a very late stage in the
process, conventional wisdom states that the conflict can never be
resolved; but before the ink is dry on the agreement, people are ready
to conclude that it was inevitable. They put it down to outside events
like the end of the cold war, to the effect of 9/11 or to changing
economic circumstances. But this conventional wisdom is wrong.
Just as no conflict is insoluble, nor is it inevitable that it will
be resolved at any particular moment in history. Believing that a
solution is inevitable is nearly as dangerous as believing a conflict
cannot be solved. If people sit around waiting for a conflict to be
“ripe” for talks to start, or for the forces of history to solve it for
them, then it will never be resolved. If the negotiations are handled
badly, they will fail, which is why it is worth trying to learn from the
experience of others. Dealing effectively with a terrorist threat
requires political leadership, patience and a refusal to take no for an
answer. What we need are more political leaders who are capable of
remembering what happened last time – and prepared to take the necessary
risks.
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