Morning Line

President: Paul Ryan , Huckabee, Jeb Bush and Ben Carson are the only GOP candidates who are within single digits of Clinton in the Review's moving average of polls. Carson, however, has only appeared in one poll. All the other GOP candidates lag 10-15 points behind Clinton. Clinton leads other Democrats with 62 points. This substantial lead has been dropping slightly in recent weeks but no other candidate has received a boost.

 

Among Republicans, Rand Paul, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie and Paul Ryan are within three points of each other on our moving average (a statistical tie). All the rest are getting only single digit returns. :

 

It is possible for the GOP to pick up 19 electoral votes based on the current moving averages of polls, but in 2012 Obama won by 126 electoral votes.

Senate: Our moving average shows that Republicans stand to pick up 4 new Senate seats and could pick up 8 more. The Democrats could pick up 2. The current Democratic 10 seat margin (including 2 independents) could easily be flipped to a Republican majority. The GOP polls are the best so far this campaign.

 

House: A subtle shift in the moving average of generic House polls. Still too close to call, but GOP has now taken a 3 point lead.

 

Governors: Democrats stand to pick up 1 governorships and lead closely in 8. GOP stands to pick up 2 and lead closely in 5. This is an improvement for Democrats.

 

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