April 27, 2016

Morning Line

In four of the five states with primaries yesterday, one or both winning candidates came in percentages a double digit over that projected by an average of the last three polls. The only exception was Connecticut. Trump's totals were 12-24 percentage points higher in the other states. Clinton's total were much closer the polls. Only in Delaware was she double digits ahead of the polls. Her Maryland and Connecticut projections were right on target but in Pennsyvania she was nine points lower that projected.

Presume this means something but can't figure out what.


Anonymous said...

The demographic algorithms for selection and determination of sample groups have become less valid, as they likely do not account for or reflect the true extent economic redistribution and consequent disparity. In short, the old population assumptions no longer apply, as a result pollsters are polling the wrong folks.

Dave Richardson said...

The Republican polls are becoming unreliable because, due to all the negative comments of the talking heads, people are increasingly unwilling to tell the pollsters they favor Trump.

On the Democratic side, Sanders converts people as he campaigns, so the polls are always out of date.