Middle East

  New Republic -  Why did Trump restart the war? As Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan write in their new book, Regime Change, “Unlike recent Presidents, Trump had shown he was entirely comfortable using extraordinary presidential powers on a whim.”

Those extraordinary powers include the ability to launch waves of destructive attacks solely on his order. But these attacks, now numbering hundreds of sorties, are pointless. If it were possible to bomb Iran into submission, it would have worked the first time.

Trump has been stewing over his loss. He accomplished none of the objectives he repeatedly promised, including:

·       Overthrowing the Iranian regime. The government is likely stronger than before the war and certainly more hardline.

·       Obliterating Iran’s nuclear program. Trump and Israel failed last July to destroy the program and failed again this year. Though it is damaged, Iran retains significant quantities of enriched uranium and can rebuild its production facilities.

·       Destroying Iran’s missile fleet. Iran retained 70 percent of its missile capabilities after the war, according to U.S. intelligence, and is rebuilding the rest. Its drone fleet is also intact and perhaps more capable than its missiles.

·       Ending support for regional militias. A key goal for Israel, Iran’s network of regional militants is substantially weaker, but much of this happened before the war (Israel’s post–October 7 decapitation of Hezbollah, notably), and in any case, Iran shows no sign of ending its support for Hamas, Hezbollah, and others.

·       Destroying Iran’s navy. Much of Iran’s surface fleet was destroyed, but hundreds of fast patrol boats remain capable of executing their main mission: interdicting shipping through the strait.

·       Demonstrating U.S. power and resolve. The U.S. has lost credibility regionally and globally and weakened its alliances, the greatest source of U.S. global power. Persian Gulf states are reassessing the U.S. bases built on their territory since the 1991 Iraq War. Once seen as security assets, they now appear to be a security liability.

As with his 2020 election loss, Trump now seeks to bend reality. He didn’t lose the war, he claims, he won it. He achieved all his objectives, he says.