Effect of miscounting the Census

Project on Government Oversight -   In this report, POGO examines how census accuracy impacts critical federal funding for children aged 0–18 and the services needed to support a wide range of areas that shape their lives, including health, education, housing, economic development, and more.

Many people may not realize how influential the census is in determining how much federal money gets allocated to different geographic regions across the country. Census-guided programs serving children deliver funds either directly to communities or to state agencies. The census influences funding distribution in myriad ways: Depending on the program, it may use census data such as location, population, household income, age, school districts, and school enrollment to determine state eligibility and distribution.

The deficit or surplus of federal funding a state may receive stemming from inaccurate counts can directly impact children’s educational and economic outcomes and more. An undercount could mean fewer dollars, thereby fewer resources. An overcount could result in a state receiving more federal funds than its population warrants; for programs with fixed appropriations, this may proportionately reduce the share available to other states.

The U.S. Census Bureau released an analysis documenting the undercount of children aged 0–4 in the 2020 census: This age group was undercounted more than any other demographic, with approximately 1 million of the young children going uncounted in the 2020 census. They acknowledged that children have historically been miscounted, potentially leading certain states to lose out on significant funding and critical resources for them.