Defense analysts this week said the war had entered a new phase, with Kyiv poised to break a stalemate that has been in place since late 2023, with neither side able to make significant gains along a nearly 700-mile front line.
Kyiv is now calling the next six months “crucial” for it to seize the battlefield initiative, as Moscow has responded to the momentum with threats of escalation and stepped up aerial strikes.
“For the very first time since 2023, the Ukrainians have actually managed to take back more terrain than the Russians did,” said George Barros, a longtime analyst on Russia now with the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
In a report this week, ISW said the Ukrainian gains show the war is shifting in favor of its forces, at least for the time being, thanks to Kremlin troops stagnating in battlefield advances and Kyiv’s forces effectively using drones and innovative tactics to break out of old positions.
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