Middle East

NBC News -   The U.S. military blockade of Iran’s ports will eventually deprive Tehran of crucial oil revenue, but the regime could likely withstand pressure for months without a major economic crisis or lasting damage to its oil fields, energy industry analysts and two Western officials familiar with intelligence assessments said. 

Administration officials say the blockade is designed to cut off Iran’s oil exports and force Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and bow to U.S. demands at the negotiating table. But it’s unclear if the economic pain from a blockade would be sufficient to push the regime into making significant concessions. It’s also unclear whether President Donald Trump is willing to wait that long for a possible tipping point. 

After the blockade was imposed about a month ago, Trump and top officials in his administration suggested it would produce an immediate crisis for Iran’s oil sector, possibly within three days. But that scenario did not materialize. 

Instead, Iran has gradually begun to cut back oil production. At some point within the next two months, it may run out of storage capacity for its oil and even be forced to shut down some wells. But most analysts say Iran can probably avoid doing so.