Middle East

Bloomberg - Iran is said to have told regional intermediaries that for a ceasefire, the US must guarantee that neither it nor Israel will strike the country in the future. Twelve days ago, despite ongoing talks over its nuclear program, the two countries launched a surprise attack, starting a war that’s killed at least 1,800 people in Iran and Lebanon, and dozens more around the Persian Gulf. Iran is particularly concerned something like that might happen again. It’s unclear if Washington is willing to give Tehran such a pledge and if it would be able to insist on Tel Aviv doing the same. Back-channel communications are said to be being facilitated by European and Middle Eastern countries.

NY Times -    It seems that President Trump’s aims in joining the air war against Iran are beginning to rub against the long-term objectives of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel. While Mr. Trump has said in recent days that America’s military goals are nearly complete — even though the ayatollahs remain in power — Israel seeks an end to the regime and to crush its regional influence.  In short, Mr. Trump wants to bend Iran. Mr. Netanyahu seeks to break it.

NPR  - The U.S. and Israel could soon reach a point when there are a limited number of viable targets for their bombing campaign in Iran, NPR’s Greg Myre tells Up First. Oil prices spiked today to $100 a barrel. Iran might keep the Strait of Hormuz closed to inflict as much economic pain as possible and deter future U.S. and Israeli attacks on them again, Myre says. 

Yesterday, the International Energy Agency announced that member nations would release 400 million barrels from their strategic oil reserves. It's the largest crude oil release the IEA has ever coordinated. Of those, 172 million will be coming from the U.S. over four months beginning next week. Former Trump economic adviser Stephen Moore tells NPR's Tamara Keith the president is betting that the conflict with Iran will be short, gas prices will soon drop and voters will forgive or forget. But rising fuel costs could make other essentials more expensive for consumers, Keith says. This could become a political challenge for Republicans in the midterm elections, where affordability is a top issue.