March 2, 2026

Billions in Medicaid cuts

Axios -   State Medicaid budgets will be reduced by $665 billion over a decade due to changes from the Republican tax-and-spending law, with California and New York taking the biggest hits, according to a new RAND analysis.

New work requirements on nondisabled adults and limits on provider taxes will have the greatest impact on state budgets, forcing some to cut benefits, pare enrollment or draw more heavily on general funds to maintain coverage.

20 states are expected to see substantial reductions of 5% or more to their Medicaid budgets.

...Arizona, Iowa and Nevada could see declines of more than 15%, while California and New York are projected to experience the greatest reductions in dollar terms, about $112 billion and $63 billion, respectively.

A few less populous states, including Wyoming and South Dakota, could see modest increases in Medicaid budgets due to the law's $50 billion in rural health funding.
Savings to the federal government will total $714 billion over the period studied, and the authors estimate there will be 7.6 million fewer Medicaid enrollees by 2034.

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