“Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden—the remaining 96% is passed through to U.S. buyers,” the authors of the research wrote in a study, which analyzed $4 trillion of shipments between January 2024 and November 2025.
The research found that exporters to the U.S. raised prices to account for the tariffs, or kept prices the same while reducing shipments.
The study concludes that the $200 billion increase in customs revenue that the U.S. government raised in 2025 was a “tax paid almost entirely by Americans.”
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