Ukraine

The Hill -  Republicans on Capitol Hill have deep misgivings about President Trump’s emerging deal to end the war in Ukraine, as key GOP lawmakers fear the administration could set the stage for further Russian aggression toward NATO allies in Europe.

Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense Chair Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) have led the public criticism of the administration’s pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to accept a deal heavily tilted toward Russia’s demands.

This has put them in direct opposition to Vice President Vance, who is exercising increasing influence over U.S. attempts to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, a Vance ally, has taken over as Trump’s top interlocutor with Ukraine. 

Time -  The 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, leaked to the press last week, left many wondering about its origins. The document repeated many of the talking points previously voiced by the Kremlin. Even the language of the plan looked to some as if it was translated from Russian. The confusion grew after a group of U.S. lawmakers claimed Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that it was a Russian proposal. Rubio was quick to deny that and insist the plan was an American one, based on “the input from the Russian side.”

Whatever the origins, the plan is a disaster for Ukraine and Europe for several reasons.

First, it would force Ukraine to voluntarily hand over to Russia territory it doesn’t control. That includes some of the most heavily fortified land in Donetsk region, which would make a new Russian assault on Kyiv an easy walk. Ukraine has always insisted that the conflict should be frozen along the current frontlines, and that a ceasefire must be a pre-condition for any further talks.

Second, it severely limits Ukraine’s sovereignty by capping the size of its armed forces to 600,000, and by forcing it to abandon NATO aspirations and enshrine neutrality in its constitution (Ukraine was constitutionally a neutral country before Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014). Giving the Russian language and Russian Orthodox Church more rights might seem like innocent provisions, but the Moscow-centered institution would increase the Kremlin’s influence inside Ukraine.

Third, the plan foresees an amnesty for “all parties”—including Russian soldiers, who have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ukraine. Among them are those responsible for a massacre of civilians in Bucha, the bombing of maternity hospitals in Mariupol, the illegal deportation of 19,500 Ukrainian children, and ongoing drone attacks on civilians in Kherson. There is a huge demand for justice inside Ukraine—and this plan does nothing to address it.

Fourth, the plan doesn’t offer any concrete security guarantees for Ukraine and relies heavily on Russia’s goodwill not to invade again. It ignores the fact that Russia has violated numerous international and bilateral commitments since 2014. It rewards and empowers the aggressor by forcing the victim to compromise on issues vital for its survival.

The plan would leave Ukraine—and Europe at large—extremely vulnerable to more, not less, Russian aggression. Nobody in Ukraine trusts Russia—the general consensus is it would use any deal or pause in the fighting to rearm, regroup, and attack again. Russia would also be more tempted to test Europe’s resolve by attacking a E.U. or NATO member, like one of the Baltic states. The German defense chief has already warned NATO to prepare for a possible attack there by 2029.

NPR -  Newly released transcripts by Bloomberg show U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff coached a Russian adviser on how to pitch a Ukraine peace deal to President Trump. The transcripts were released just as Trump's peace plan appears to be making headway. During the phone call, Witkoff allegedly advises Yuri Ushakov, Russian President Vladimir Putin's foreign policy adviser, on how to manage Trump. The news outlet says the recording is from a call in mid-October, right after Trump sanctioned Russia’s two biggest oil companies. NPR has not independently verified the contents of the transcript.

NPR’s Eleanor Beardsley tells Up First she spoke with Ukrainian parliament member and chair of the foreign affairs committee Oleksandr Merezhko, who says he is not surprised by this development. Merezhko called for Witkoff's replacement six months ago, citing incompetence and lack of understanding regarding Ukraine and the origins of the war. Merezhko says that Ukrainians know they are dealing with people in Trump’s entourage who take Russia’s side, but they have to deal with them regardless of who they are. 

NPR’s Franco Ordoñez reports that Ukraine and Russia are not necessarily closer to reaching a deal, even though the two countries are exchanging ideas on how to end the war with the U.S. Trump seems to show genuine interest in the loss of life, especially children, but Ordoñez believes that the president’s quest for a Nobel Peace Prize could be a partial motivation for ending the war.