Polls

The Hill -  Democrats lead by 14 points (55 percent to 41 percent) in a generic congressional election per PBS/NPR/Marist polling, their largest advantage in this survey since 2017. Moreover, independents preferred Democrats by 33 points (61 percent to 28 percent). 

These findings dovetail with a survey from Marquette Law School showing voters who are “absolutely certain” to vote prefer a Democrat by 9 points (53 percent to 44 percent). 

In fact, of the 11 most recent polls aggregated by RealClearPolitics, Democrats lead in 10 — one was a tie — and by an average of five points. 

Historically, polling tends to show close races in the generic congressional vote. In 2024 and 2022, Republicans were favored by less than half a point and 2.5 points, respectively, and both elections ended up being extremely close.

But when polls show relative extremes — such as in 2018, when the average poll gave Democrats a 7-point lead — landslides tend to follow.