November 13, 2025

Past greenhouse gas progress

A line chart shows global energy-related CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2050 in metric gigatons. The historical line shows emissions around 35 metric gigatons, rising to a projected 50 metric gigatons by 2050 according to the 2014 projections. Current policy projections indicate a reduction towards approximately 38 metric gigatons, while possible future policies are projected to lower emissions to about 30 metric gigatons.
Data: IEA; Chart: Sara Wise/Axios

Axios- The chart above shows three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios from the International Energy Agency. .

  • The top blue line shows what the IEA was predicting would happen with policies in place and under consideration back in 2014.
  • The middle pink line shows what IEA is predicting today based upon policies currently in place.
  • The lower purple line shows where emissions from the energy sector could go if policies under consideration are put in place.

Reality check: Even so, past performance doesn't dictate future results.

"There is no guarantee that we will take stronger action on climate change in the future. I hope we will. I think we will because that's been the trend over the last few decades," said Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather in an interview.

  • "If the 21st century is led by leaders who share ideology closer to the Trump administration, we won't."

The bottom line: The possible trajectories are better than a decade ago, but they still indicate significant global warming.

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