Axios - Adaptation can't outrun climate change, and rich farming nations — including the U.S. — face jeopardy despite their resources, according to a major new paper on global warming and crop production.
It's the first look at climate effects on staple crops to weigh
farmers' "real-world adaptation measures" and fold them into projections
of future damage, a summary states. The study projects losses for all staples analyzed except rice, though there's lots of regional variation.
The Nature paper estimates that for every 1°C of temperature rise, global food production capacity falls by 120 calories per day per person.
- "If the climate warms by 3 degrees, that's basically like everyone on the planet giving up breakfast," said co-author Solomon Hsiang, a Stanford environmental policy professor, in a statement....
- Under a moderate emissions growth case, central estimates in 2100 —
with adaptation and income growth — are -12% for corn, -13.5% for wheat,
and -22.4% for soybeans, to name three.
Adaptation and higher wealth alleviate 6% of global losses in 2050 and 12% in 2100 in that moderate emissions scenario...
- The paper estimates that even with adaptation, parts of the U.S. could see corn and wheat declines in the 25% range in the moderate emissions case. Here's the same map under runaway emissions.
- Nearer term, climate change will drag global crop yields down by 8% in 2050, "regardless of how much emissions rise or fall in the coming decades," a separate Stanford summary notes.
The bottom line: Adaptation to a hotter world is vital and helps temper crop losses — but it has its limits. More
No comments:
Post a Comment