Climate change

ProPublica - Researchers now estimate tens of millions of Americans may ultimately move away from extreme heat and drought, storms and wildfires. While many Americans are still moving into areas considered high risk, lured by air conditioning and sunny weather, the economic and physical vulnerabilities they face are becoming more apparent.

One study by the First Street Foundation, a research firm that studies climate threats to housing, found that roughly 3.2 million Americans have already migrated, many over short distances, out of flood zones, such as low-lying parts of Staten Island, Miami and Galveston, Texas. Over the next 30 years, 7.5 million more are projected to leave those perennially flooded zones, according to the study.

All of this suggests a possible boom for inland and Northern cities. But it also will leave behind large swaths of coastal and other vulnerable land where seniors and the poor are very likely to disproportionately remain.

The Southern United States stands to be especially transformed. Extreme heat, storms and coastal flooding will weigh heavily on the bottom third of this country, making the environment less comfortable and life within it more expensive and less prosperous.

The young, mobile and middle class will be more likely to leave to chase opportunity and physical and economic safety. That means government — from local to federal — must now recognize its responsibility to support the communities in climate migration’s wake. Even as an aging population left behind will require greater services, medical attention and physical accommodation, the residents who remain will reside in states that may also face diminished representation in Congress — because their communities are shrinking. Local governments could be left to fend alone, but with an evaporating tax base to work with...

The research contains plenty of nuance ⎯ cities like Miami may continue to grow overall even as their low-lying sections hollow out. And the abandonment areas it identified were scattered widely, including across large parts of the inland Northeast and the upper Midwest. But many of them also fall in some of the very places most susceptible to storm surges from weather events like Helene: Parts of low-lying coastal Florida and Texas are already seeing population declines, for instance.

In all, the First Street report identified 818,000 U.S. census blocks as having passed tipping points for abandonment ⎯ areas with a combined population of more than 16 million people. A related peer-reviewed component of the organization’s research forecasts that soon, whole counties across Florida and Central Texas could begin to see their total populations decline, suggesting a sharp reversal of the persistent growth that Florida has maintained as climate pressures rise, by the middle of this century.