July 3, 2024

Polling update

Sam Smith - Almost a week after the presidential debate, our five poll average continues to show Trump leading by only 2% over Biden - an effective tie given the uncertainties of polling. This is strikingly different than the view of some Democrats and media who are describing Biden as a failure. 

Meanwhile, the polls so far show only one winning alternative to Biden - namely Michelle Obama  - who came out a striking 11 points ahead of Trump in one Ipsos poll. Michelle Obama has said she doesn't plan to run for president. Harris lagged by 1 and 2 points, Newsom and Whitmer failed by 5.

 2024 PRESIDENTIAL RACE: BIDEN VS. TRUMP
2024 -Most recent poll average: Trump leads by 2% ... In April Biden led by up to 3%; his May high was 2%; in June his high was 1% behind Trump  

2024 RACE: BIDEN VS TRUMP & OTHERS
Most recent five poll average:1 3 1 2 4 Trump leads by 2% ... In June Biden's high was 2% behind Trump

BIDEN APPROVAL RATING  44 40 36 38 37 Most recent five poll average 39  - 3% behind Trump

TRUMP APPROVAL RATING:  2024 - 44 40 44 41 46 Most recent five poll average 42%,  3% ahead of Biden

PRESIDENTIAL STATE MARGINS
Total electoral votes: 538.  Biden won in 2020 by 74 electoral votes. Biden is currently down 53 electoral votes from 2020 with 26 electoral votes too close to call

MICHIGAN
Three poll average Biden/Trump:  1 1 4 Trump leads by 2% ... Biden down 5% from 2020
Three poll average: Biden/Trump/Others 11 3 Trump leads by 2%
16 electoral votes too close to call
 

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Biden Trump 3 poll 2024 average: Biden leads by 4% down 4% from 2020
Biden Trump Others 3 poll 2024 average:
Biden leads by 1%

PENNSYLVANIA   
Trump-Biden 3 poll average: Trump leads by 2% - 2% better than  2020
2024 Trump/Biden/Others: Trump leads by 3% -  3% better than 2020
Biden Electoral vote down 20

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