The Biggest Risk for Candidates on the GOP Debate Stage: Themselves

Time -  Every also-ran candidate for the presidency has the same notion: all they need to slingshot to the race’s top tier is a breakout performance at a nationally televised debate. They spend days—or weeks, in some cases—studying their rivals’ records, honing their barbs and finding the perfect parry to dodge the inevitable incoming. Even the non-lawyers are suddenly freelancing as prosecutors in a fan-fic roleplay unfolding in hotel conference rooms and the back of campaign buses.

Most of the eight candidates who have landed a spot on the stage for the first Republican debate would be wrong to think they are going to go up there and clobber the competition. In fact, they are all likely approaching the opportunity with the wrong mentality. The stakes could not be more significant—not to win, but to dodge a faceplant. In fact, primary debates—like the one on Wednesday in Milwaukee—can definitely serve up more damage than advantage. Every campaign veteran knows the greatest hits of debate flubs. And in primaries in particular, voters respond with little mercy. In fact, one academic study found that 60% of voters changed their minds after watching primary debates, far lapping the 14% of minds that are historically changed because of the general election debates.