April 20, 2020

VIRUS STATS MONDAY

Globally, the average number of new cases the past seven days is 14% above the previous week. For America it is up 7%.
  • The average number of new United Kingdom cases are down 36% compared to the previous week
  • Average number of new cases in Spain this week are are up 4% compared to the previous week
  • Average number of new  cases in Italy this week are down 4% compared to the previous week
  • Average number of new cases in Iran this week are up 15% compared to the previous week.
  • Average number of new  cases in Germany this week are down 25%  compared to the previous week
 Death rate of reported cases
  • The latest death rate of reported cases in all major virus countries has increased this week over past week's average. (This may be due, in some cases, to improved reporting):
USA at 5% or 41% over the previous week's average
Global 6.7%  or 13% over the previous week's average

United Kingdom is worst 13.6%
Italy is second  at 13.1%
France is third at 12.5%
Germany is 3.0%
 States
  • The highest number of cases are in New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, California and Michigan. 
  • Michigan, Washington,  New York  and Louisiana all have seen a decline in new cases this week, ranging from 45% in Michigan to 1% in New York
  • In all the major virus states, the death rate of reported cases has increased the past seven days by 12-64% compared to the previous week. The lowest - Georgia and Washington - were early targets of the virus.
  • The highest death rates of reported cases are in Michigan, New York, Washington, Louisiana, and New Jersey

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

this is not up to the standard of investigative journalism.

https://apnews.com/d20f283318c86bec3cc2d3d7936a9612

the mortalilty rate is not taking into account the asymptomatic. if you do, that rate drops to 0.25%. the fact that most epidemiologists and journalists are avoiding this fact, leaves me dubious as to the reality of the situation.

Sam Smith said...

If you're asymptomatic you aren't sick yet. Actual cases is a more logical base. As WHO has noted, the risk of catching COVID-19 from someone with no symptoms at all is very low.

Anonymous said...

asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic are not the same. usually those classified as asymptomatic in statistical analysis will never present. the question remains what percentage of those asymptomtic in the testing done on the street will actually present.

this begs the question that maybe a better understanding could be had by finding a different metric. how about deaths per 100,000, like other afflictions are commonly done?