Morning Line: Biden does best

Based on our moving average of polls, Joe Biden is the only Democratic candidate who would clearly defeat most leading Republicans, although he is only two points ahead of Ben Carson. Hillary Clinton is in a statistical tie with all the leading Republicans and Sanders is likewise except against Carson who would beat him by 8 points.

What is somewhat astounding is that in the most recent Public Policy Poll in which Clinton and Sanders do not do so well, respondents said they had voted for Obama over Romney by seven points. And while only 18% identify themselves as members of the Tea Party, 45% describe themselves as evangelical Christians. 

In the GOP primary Trump is at 23, leading Carson by 4 points. Rubio is in third place with 13, followed by Fiorona and Bush with 8 and Cruz with 7. Clinton has 22 point lead over Sanders. Biden is 23 points behind.

Among Republicans, Trump leads in 14 states, Carson, Huckabee and Bush in 2 states. Among Democrats Clinton leads in 17 states, Sanders in 2.

A look at the polling in two states the Dems won in 2012, Ohio and Pennsylvania, several trends are noticable:

• Clinton is quite weak
• Biden is the strongest 
• Carson is strong, suggesting the importance of the evangelical vote.

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