March 16, 2015

Morning Line: Clinton is in more trouble than media is reporting

In our three poll moving average, Clinton continues to slip.  She is only 6 points ahead of Bush, Rubio, or Walker. A mere four point shift in voter sentiment could defeat her with any of these. Christie is 7 points behind, Huckabee and Perry are 8, and Paul is 9. This means that there are six Republicans that need only a four or five point shift in voter sentiment to win.

Bush leads leads by 2 points over Walker and 6 over Huckabee. They are the only Republicans in double digits.

Bush leads in 5 states, Huckabee in four states and Christie leads in three. Paul leads in 2 and Walker in 2.

Clinton remains a comfortable 42 points either Warren or Biden.

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