New Republic - Both Spanberger and Sherrill entirely erased the GOP advantage with voters who lack a four-year degree. Spanberger tied her Republican opponent among them, with each getting 50 percent, a huge swing from four years earlier, when Glenn Youngkin won them by 59 percent to 40 percent. Meanwhile, Sherrill also tied her GOP opponent among non-college voters by 50 percent to 49 percent.
And here’s a striking nuance: While both Democrats lost non-college white voters by large amounts—a demographic the party continues to struggle with—Spanberger did reduce that margin relative to 2021. Critically, both made up for that by winning huge margins among non-college nonwhite voters: The spreads were 85–15 for Spanberger and 75–23 for Sherrill. Given that Trump’s 2024 victory unleashed a hurricane of analysis about his inroads with the nonwhite working class, those margins are heartening indeed.
True, there are nuances and caveats here. Virginia and New Jersey are blue-leaning; turnout differentials could help explain these shifts; they might not hold in a higher-turnout presidential election; exit polls are not the final word; and so forth. But still, such success for Democrats with non-college voters—relative to recent performances in the same states—suggests they may be starting to repair the damage Trump did to their coalition.
There’s a bizarre tendency in our political discourse to treat criticism of Trump—including his lawlessness and consolidation of authoritarian power—as somehow evading the “real” issues that working-class voters actually care about. Tuesday’s results sorely test this false dichotomy. On one front after another, the Democrats’ attacks on Trump were directly linked to voters’ material concerns.
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