The uncomfortable truth about Democrats' problem reaching male voters

 MSNBC  -  Over the weekend, The New York Times reported that Democratic donors are considering a $20 million “strategic plan” called “Speaking with American Men” that includes “study(ing) the syntax, language and content that gains attention and virality” in male “spaces.” The initiative is yet another example of Democrats trying to make sense of the 2024 election and, in particular, how they can win back male voters.

But polling data from the last four presidential elections suggests the root of their male voter problem — and the potential solution — might be rather straightforward: Support for Democrats among male voters dropped most dramatically when the party’s presidential candidate was a woman — and rebounded when the party nominated a man.

Declines were evident across every major demographic group.

At the outset, it’s important to note that there are significant caveats to this data. Four elections offer useful data, but it’s still a relatively small sample size. In addition, it’s impossible to say with certainty that the presence of a woman on the Democratic ticket sapped the party’s support in presidential elections. Some of the reasoning here is based on circumstantial evidence. Nonetheless, the numbers tell a sobering tale.

For example, last week, Catalist, a progressive organization that analyzes voter data, released its report entitled “What Happened in 2024,” and it’s clear that, across the board, Democrats lost ground with men. While women supported Kamala Harris at nearly the same levels that they supported Joe Biden in 2020, the share of men backing the Democratic ticket dropped from 48% in 2020 to 42% in 2024. In all, there was an 11-point shift from Democrats to Republicans. These declines were evident across every major demographic group.

For example, white and black women supported Biden and Harris at levels virtually unchanged from 2020, but there was a four-point drop among white men and a seven-point drop among Black men. Support for Democrats among Latino women fell by seven points, but among Latino men, the decline was 12 points.