New Republic - Donald Trump received 56 percent of the working-class vote in 2024, according to exit polls, up from 51 percent in 2020 and 49 percent in 2016. The bond between the president and these voters is sadomasochistic.
The more Trump skews government policy against the working class
(defined here conventionally as people who lack a college degree), the
more votes Trump receives from it. Honoring this special relationship,
the House Republicans’ latest tax plan (text; section-by-section summary) is the budgetary equivalent of a cat o’ nine tails. Time for a safe word. I propose bullshit.
The most notable thing about the House plan is that it doesn’t include the very modest tax increase on income above $2.5 million, from 37 percent to 40 percent, that’s recently been bandied about. Trump has danced around the idea of a millionaire tax, first telling Time’s Eric Cortellessa that “I actually love the concept but I don’t want it to be used against me politically,” then saying, “It would be very disruptive, because a lot of the millionaires would leave the country” (no they wouldn’t, but never mind), then finally saying, “Republicans should probably not do it, but I’m OK if they do!!!” The through line is I want everyone to think I’m for higher taxes on the rich, but for the love of God don’t do it.
Far from increasing taxes on the rich, the House bill cuts them by extending Trump’s 2017 income tax cut, which reduced the top marginal rate from 40 percent to 37 percent on income above $731,201 for married couples filing jointly and above $609,351 for single taxpayers. According to the nonprofit Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, 65 percent of the cuts go to the top 20 percent in the income distribution (i.e., households that earn more than $153,000) and 28 percent go to the top 1 percent (households that earn more than $787,712).
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