November 4, 2016

Morning Line

Based on the average of recent polls:
Nationally, Hillary Clinton is two points ahead of Trump, a statistical tie. This this is 4 points better than her worst position vs Trump and five points less than her best. Her current average percentage is 44%, Her campaign range has been 38-48%

Clinton is leading with 229 electoral votes. Another 51 electoral votes are leaning Democratic for a total of 282. 181 electoral votes are definitely in the Trump column. Another 41 are possible. This would still leave him 43 electoral votes short.

In the Senate the Democrats are winning one GOP seat and have a narrow lead in two more. One current Democratic seat is in doubt. Four current GOP seats are in doubt. The Dems need to win four more seats (plus a Democratic Veep) to control the Senate.

Democrats have already gained one governorship and could gain two more. Two current Democratic governorships are in doubt and the GOP is ahead in another.

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