August 15, 2016

Morning Line

Despite the media presumption that Trump is fading, the latest poll averages point to a continued tight race in the popular vote. Nationally, Hillary Clinton is 2 points ahead of Trump, a statistical tie and 12 points less than her best lead to date. She is 6 points better than her worst to date. Her average of 42% is 4 below her best to date.

On the other hand, looking at electoral votes tells quite a different story. Clinton is leading with 216 of the needed 270 votes, down 40 from her best. Another 146 electoral votes are possible Democratic. Only 57 electoral votes are definitely in the Trump column. Another 50 are possible.

In the Senate the Democrats stand to gain three seats and the GOP one. The Dems could possibly win another three. The Dems need three more seats plus a Democratic Veep to control the Senate.

In governorships, Democrats should win 1 . Republicans are leaning ahead in three races, Democrats in two

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