The most recent poll in Michigan in which Hillary Clinton is in a statistical tie with Trump is more than a little disturbing. It's not merely that Clinton is in a statistical tie while Sanders is 19 points ahead, it's that this has happened only once in the last 20 years when, in 1996, the Democratic candidate won the state by just three points (one less than Clinton's lead) whereas in the other elections the Democrat has won by 5 to 16 points. The Republican candidate hasn't won the state since 1988.
Things are even worse in New Jersey, where Clinton, according to the latest poll, is in another statistical tie of only four points ahead. In recent elections, Democrats have won th state by 9 to 18 points and they have won ever election since 1992.
This is another troubling example of how the pros in the Democratic Party are being driven by personal rather than party loyalty. In fact, the Clinton myth has been damaging from their start as national figures. As we noted some years back"
to the National Conference of State Legislatures, Democrats held
a 1,542 seat lead in state bodies in 1990. At the end of the Clinton years that
lead had shrunk to 288. That's a loss of over 1,200 state legislative
seats, nearly all of them under Clinton.
Across the US, the Democrats
controlled only 65 more state senate seats than the Republicans.
Further, in 1992, the Democrats
controlled 17 more state legislatures than the Republicans. After
1998, the Republicans controlled one more than the Democrats.
Not only was this a loss of 9 legislatures under Clinton, but
it was the first time since 1954 that the GOP had controlled
more state legislatures than the Democrats (they tied in 1968).
Here's what happened to
the Democrats under Clinton:
- GOP seats gained in House
since Clinton became president: 45
- GOP seats gained in Senate since Clinton became president:
- GOP governorships gained since Clinton became president: 11
- GOP state legislative seats gained since Clinton became president:
as of 1998
- State legislatures taken over by GOP since Clinton became president:
- Democrat officeholders who have become Republicans since Clinton
president: 439 as of 1998
- Republican officeholders who became Democrats since Clinton
became president: 3
In short, those seeking a Democratic win in 2016 had better spend more time looking at the figures and less playing with fantasies.