Several factors contributed to the recent decline. The COVID-19 pandemic caused approximately 400,000 excess deaths in 2020 and 2021, creating much of the documented drop in life expectancy. However, the decline wasn't solely due to pandemic deaths. Drug overdose deaths, particularly those involving opioids and synthetic drugs like fentanyl, increased substantially during this period. The number of overdose deaths roughly doubled between 2015 and 2021, hitting approximately 100,000 deaths annually by 2021. Suicide rates also increased during certain years in this period. Deaths from chronic conditions worsened in some cases due to delayed medical care during lockdowns.
The declines were not evenly distributed across populations. Some groups experienced larger drops in life expectancy than others. Working-age adults, particularly those without college degrees and those facing economic hardship, showed larger declines. Certain geographic regions—particularly rural and post-industrial areas—saw more significant drops than others. These patterns suggested that the decline was connected not only to specific diseases but also to broader social and economic conditions affecting different populations differently.
Starting in 2022, U.S. life expectancy began to increase again, though data remains preliminary. The causes of the recent increases include reduced COVID-19 mortality as vaccines and treatments improved, declining overdose death rates in some regions due to increased access to overdose reversal medications and treatment programs, and general reduction in excess mortality. However, life expectancy remained below pre-2020 levels as of the most recent available data.
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