Middle East

The Hill - President Trump said Thursday that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 10-day ceasefire after meeting in Washington to try and strike a peace deal. NPR - President Trump has been referring to the war in Iran in the past tense, despite the fact that peace talks in Pakistan stalled out over the weekend. Pakistan sent its interior minister and military chief to Tehran yesterday. Trump has made bold claims about the war nearing its end since just a couple of weeks after it started. Despite his claims that the U.S. has decimated Iran and that the war is almost over, 13 swing voters who participated in two online focus groups on Tuesday said they wouldn't describe the military action as going well.

Trump often uses vague language, which makes him and his objectives hard to pin down. The president's attempts to declare victory are a sign that he wants the conflict to end. Tevi Troy, a presidential historian who served in the George W. Bush administration, [said] that as wars evolve, U.S. presidents often explain to the American people why their missions change. Troy says that Trump's style allows him more flexibility than others have had, but that only goes so far. The bulk of oil and gas exports from the Gulf remain stuck amid the U.S. forces' blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's closing of the crucial waterway. Oil prices have surged by about 40% since the war began... Ellen Wald, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center, says there is a severe supply chain crisis affecting fertilizers, aluminum, liquefied natural gas, polymers, plastics and diesel for construction and agriculture. While Americans are currently seeing higher gas prices and haven't felt it in other areas, Wald says that the longer the conflict continues, the more prices across the economy will increase. Airlines are facing rising costs, and Airports Council International Europe, a group representing airport operators, has warned of a potential "systemic jet fuel shortage" if traffic through the Strait doesn't normalize by month’s end.