Axios - Fresh UN analysis finds that nations' updated emissions pledges to date will barely lower previously projected warming. And that's if they're implemented — a gigantic "if."
Countries' "nationally determined contributions" (NDCs) would bring warming of 2.3°C to 2.5°C above preindustrial levels, the annual "emissions gap" report finds. Meanwhile, current policies yield 2.8°C of warming. That's under last year's projection, but still a really harmful amount...
"Alignment with [the Paris Agreement's] 1.5°C and 2°C goals would require rapid and unprecedented cuts to greenhouse gas emissions far above what has been pledged," a summary states....
Back when Paris was adopted, nations' current policies were on track to bring catastrophic warming of roughly 4°C, the UN claims.
A new Rhodium Group study sees a likely warming range of 2.3°C to 3.4°C by 2100, and a mean of 2.8°C — well below pre-Paris estimates, but still a "dire climate future."....
Bloomberg reports that "this year's COP30 summit in Brazil will be conspicuously free of top-level Wall Street bankers discussing how to cut their financed emissions," citing climate focus giving way to meeting demand and security.
- ING analysts, in a note about COP30, see "little cause for optimism at this stage."
- However, "corporate climate action remains resilient, but more discreet."
"Victory on the big issues in Belém might merely mean establishing a process that could facilitate braver, science-based political decisions in the future — a sad consolation prize," Nigel Purvis, a former U.S. climate diplomat, writes in Foreign Policy.
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