DEMOCRATS

Roll Call -  For the first time since the Watergate era, independents appear to have surpassed one of the major political parties to rank second in terms of party identification. This should be a big red flag for Democrats trying to understand their election losses, but this dramatic change has largely gone unnoticed by the shell-shocked party, the media and the pundit class in the past two weeks of nonstop analysis.  

While the Edison Research exit polls are still being finalized, current numbers show that the 2024 election could go down in history as the election the Democratic Party ID hit an all-time low. This extends a downward trend for Democrats that began in 2012, a shift that has the potential to make a huge difference for Republican prospects going forward. 

Exit polls ask voters which of the two major parties they identify with, or neither, as the case may be. Comparing the composition of the electorate in the 2024 presidential race with the one in 2020, Democrats dropped a significant 6 points in party ID, going from 37 percent to 31 percent and becoming, de facto, the country’s third party, behind both Republicans and independents.